Satellite Falling To Earth November 2013, But No One Knows When Or Where; Scientists Will Know More ‘Closer To The Time Of Re-Entry’ Next Week

A satellite is falling to Earth sometime in November 2013, but scientists are still unsure when or where the satellite debris will fall to Earth.

The UK Space Agency has sent an email warning that a European satellite will fall to Earth sometime in November 2013, but no one knows where the satellite is going to hit Earth, The New York Times reports.

"It's rather hard to predict where the spacecraft will re-enter and impact," said Rune Floberghagen, the mission manager for the European Space Agency's Gravity Field and Steady-State Ocean Circulation Explorer, or GOCE. "Concretely our best engineering prediction is now for a re-entry on Sunday, with a possibility for it slipping into early Monday."

GOCE (pronounced GO-chay) ran out of propellant last month and has been dropping about 2.5 miles a day. According to The New York Times, almost all places on Earth pass beneath the satellite's orbit as the planet rotates.

However, the chances that a chunk of GOCE or any other space debris will fall to Earth and injure someone are tiny. Floberghagen said the debris will endanger about 15 to 20 square yards of the Earth's surface.

"If you compare that to the surface of the planet, it's a very small number," Floberghagen said.

The UK Space Agency stated, according to The Huffington Post: "When and where these parts might land cannot yet be predicted, but the affected area will be narrowed down closer to the time of re-entry. This style of decommissioning may seem like a risky strategy but it's actually one of the better options."

About 25 to 45 fragments of the one-ton spacecraft are expected to survive all the way to the surface, and the largest piece of debris could weigh up to 200 pounds, according to The New York Times. In total, about 100 tons of debris will fall from the sky in 2013 alone. There are, however, no known instances in which anyone has been injured by space debris. 

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