50 Percent Increase In Breast Cancer Cases Prediction Poorly Worded, According to Chief Medical Officer Of American Cancer Society

A new study by researchers at the National Cancer Institute made headlines when the results predicted a 50 percent increase in breast cancer diagnoses in the U.S. by 2030. But Dr. Otis Brawley, chief medical and scientific officer of the American Cancer Society, said that the prediction may not seem as dire as it sounds and that it is "unfortunate" wording.

The National Cancer Institute, part of the National Institutes of Health, found that there were 283,000 Americans diagnosed with breast cancer in 2011 - and that number is predicted to rise to about 441,000 in 2030. The information was announced at the annual meeting of the American Association for Cancer Research 

Philip Rosenberg, a senior investigator in the division of cancer epidemiology and genetics at the National Cancer Institute, said the predicted increase in breast cancers reflects three trends, according to the Washington Post.

These trends include: the increasing number of older women in the population as the Baby Boomer generation ages; increased life expectancy, which means more time in a woman's life to develop breast cancer at some point; and a rise in the number of tumors receptive to the hormone estrogen (known as ER-positive breast cancers), likely due to changes in "circumstances and lifestyles," such as having children later in life.

However, Dr. Otis Brawley, chief medical and scientific officer of the American Cancer Society (who wasn't involved with Rosenberg's analysis but was in the audience during the presentation) pointed out that the dramatic prediction doesn't mean the U.S. is about to face an epidemic of breast cancer.

Instead, a woman's overall chances for developing breast cancer will remain roughly the same. Currently, one in eight women will develop breast cancer in her lifetime.

"I think that the way it was worded was perhaps unfortunate because the risk of breast cancer for an individual woman is going to stay about the same, but the absolute number of people who get breast cancer is going to increase from the increasing size of the population and the increasing number of people alive in their 70s, 80s and 90s," Brawley said in a phone conversation with the Huffington Post.

In a statement about his study, Rosenberg said: "In sum, our results suggest that although breast cancer overall is going to increase, different subtypes of breast cancer are moving in different directions and on different trajectories. These distinct patterns within the overall breast cancer picture highlight key research opportunities that could inform smarter screening and kinder, gentler, and more effective treatment." 

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Breast Cancer
cancer
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