Earth's Population Estimated To Go Up To A Whooping 11 Billion By 2100

A collective study by University of Washington and the United Nations revealed that by 2100, the Earth will have 11 billion people. Needless to say, the increase in the population will result in global complications like poverty, change in climate and chances of infectious diseases spreading.

Not everything is bad for the Indian subcontinent though. Looking at the brighter side, Asia with its current population of 4.4 billion is estimated to reach a population of five billion people in 2050 and then the population will begin to decline.

With the aid of modern statistical tools, researchers confirmed that contrary to previous estimates, the current figure is about two billion.

University of Washington's professor of statistic and sociology, Adrian Raftery said, "The consensus over the past 20 years or so was that world population, which is currently around seven billion, would go up to nine billion and level off or probably decline."

He further added, "We found there is a 70 percent probability the world population will not stabilize in this century. Population, which had sort of fallen off the world's agenda, remains a very important issue."

By the end of the 21st century, it is speculated that Africa's growth would increase by 4 times in comparison to its current one billion to the estimated four billion.

Raftery explained, "The main reason is that birth rates in sub-Saharan Africa have not been going down as fast as had been expected. There is an 80 percent chance that the population in Africa at the end of the century will be between 3.5 billion and 5.1 billion people."

It is projected that the Caribean along with Europe, North America and Latin America will not experience a boom in population and will stay well below one billion.

Thanks to the advancement in technology, the authorities are using Bayesian statistics to combine government data and forecasts from other resources to be able to analyses such things as mortality rates, fertility rates and international migration in a better way and therefore make more accurate predictions with regards to the World population.

Speaking about uncertainty represented by the earlier reports, Raftery stated that range generated by that method was too great.

Researchers are maintaining that there is an 80 % possibility of population in 2100 to range between 9.6-12.3 billion.

Tags
University of Washington
world population
United Nations
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